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Photonics Briefing#8 Objective | Contents

Photonics Briefing #8
Fiber Bandwidth Glut - Fact or Fiction

April 18-19, 2001
Hilton Boston Logan Airport
Boston, MA

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Chairman: Dr.Hui Pan, Chief Telecom Economist, IGI Consulting

Fiber Bandwidth Glut: Fact or Fiction
Photonics Briefing Objective

The fiber optics and optical networking industry is going through a period of extraordinary growth in the US and globally. In recent months, however, there have been conflicting opinions on the topic of bandwidth. Some industry observers believe there is a bandwidth glut looming for the telecom industry, while others argue that there is "no bandwidth glut, only bandwidth gluttons." Who is right?

The "Fiber Bandwidth Glut: Fact or Fiction" briefing will provide a forum for market analysts and industry players to discuss the issues facing the broadband industry. This will be a place for them to exchange views and ideas on the state of the bandwidth market. It will offer the participants a unique opportunity to obtain market intelligence and to separate the facts from fiction.

Speakers will include well-known industry analysts, financial analysts, broadband service providers, ISPs, submarine cable operators, bandwidth exchanges, and technology solutions providers.

Who should be interested:
Executives from the following companies

  • CLECs
  • Component Suppliers
  • Competitive Local exchange carriers
  • Long Distance Carriers
  • Telephone Companies
  • Systems Suppliers
  • Entrepreneurs
  • Consultants
  • Venture Capitalists
  • Investors
  • CATV Companies
  • Integrated Service
  • Providers

Conference Program:
Fiber Bandwidth Glut: Fact or Fiction
April 18-19, 2001 Hilton Boston Logan Airport, Boston, MA
Dr. Paul Polishuk, President and CEO
IGI Consulting


OVERVIEW OF OPTICAL NETWORKING MARKETS

Overview of Optical Networking Market Trends
  • Introduction
  • Status of the optical Network Industry from Fiber Optics to Optical Networks
  • Technical Developments
  • Market Drivers
  • Market Trends and Forecasts
Robert Pepper
Chief, Office of Plans and Policy Federal
Communications Commission (FCC)


POLICY PERSPECTIVES

Broadband Market Development in the US – A Policy Perspective
Andrew Odlyzko
Researcher/ Head
of the Mathematics
and Cryptography Research Department
AT&T Labs - Research


INDUSTRY ANALYST VIEWS

Internet Growth Myths
  • Traffic on the Internet did double every three or four months back in 1995 and 1996. Starting in 1997, though, it reverted to its historic trend of doubling about once a year, and is continuing to grow at this rate. That is extremely rapid growth by any reasonable standard, but it is not enough to prevent a fiber glut from developing.

  • Fiber glut will mean less for the Internet than is often supposed. It will reduce just one element of total cost, and will mean that other elements, such as provisioning, will dominate. This will be part of the general evolution of data networks, with intelligence as well as costs migrating to the edges.
Tim Stronge
Director of Research
TeleGeography, Inc.


INDUSTRY ANALYST VIEWS

US & International Bandwidth 2001: Feast or Famine?

Supply

  • Just how much international bandwidth is there?
  • What reasons (technological innovation, deregulation, enthusiastic capital markets) lie behind the explosion in capacity?

Demand

  • How much do voice networks contribute to bandwidth demand?
  • How much do data networks (private and Internet) contribute to bandwidth demand?

Price

  • What does the intersection of supply and demand mean for the bottom lines of bandwidth buyers?
Mark Langley
Director, Senior Research Analyst
Communications Equipment Subsystems
Epoch Partners

FINANCIAL ANALYST VIEWS
  • Do we have a . . .
    • bandwidth glut?
    • fiber glut?
    • carrier glut?
    • OEM glut?
    • component vendor glut?
  • A look back . . .
    • and a look forward
  • How the component vendors will keep the industry on track
Michael Grossi
Managing Director,
Equity Ventures
Adventis


INDUSTRY ANALYST VIEWS
Bandwidth Dis-Equilibrium and the Next Optical Wave
  • ADVENTIS believes the growth of network capacity will be rooted in "Bit-BurnerTM" applications, made possible because the end-to-end bandwidth will soon be in place via optical networking technologies. The demand for an All Optical Network(AON) is being fueled by these bandwidth intensive applications. An optical evolution is in process consisting of a virtuous cycle between application development, network design and componentry innovation, and bandwidth capacity.
Ron Vidal
Group VP, New Ventures and
Investor Relations
Level 3
Communications Inc.


CARRIERS PERSPECTIVES

Bandwidth Supply and Demand - Technology and the Capital Markets
  • Abstract: Discussions on the glut of bandwidth generally fail to ask
    a fundamental question. At what price will there be a glut? Discussions of
    supply and demand generally fail to ask a fundamental question. What is the
    price elasticity of communications? These and other fundamental questions
    rely on new network economics driven by new technologies, all funded by the
    capital markets. This session explores the role of technology and the
    capital markets on supply and demand.
Dan Munson
VP Sales & Marketing
Fiberloops.Com


FIBER SUPPLY AND DEMAND

What Fiber Glut?
  • Where is the Fiber?
  • Where are people looking for fiber?
  • Outlook for supply & demand?
  • Evidence of fiber demand & short supply
Tom Soja
President
T Soja & Associates Inc.


SUBMARINE CABLE BANDWIDTH

International Telecom Bandwidth Growth Drivers, Opportunities, and Challenges
  • Submarine fiber optic cable market trends
  • Factors affecting submarine cable industry
  • Growth drivers, opportunities and challenges
  • Submarine fiber optic cable capacity forecast
  • Conclusions
Andy Kowalik
Director – Strategic Information
Tyco Submarine Systems Ltd.


CARRIERS PERSPECTIVES

Bandwidth, Fiber or Systems – The New Economics of Acquiring Bandwidth
  • The demand for bandwidth capacity is a global phenomenon that has had considerable impacts on all areas of the industry, especially the economics of how carriers acquire the requisite bandwidth at the wholesale level to satisfy their end-user retail demand. In today’s market, carriers are faced with many options related to the purchase of capacity including capacity purchases and leases, dedicated fiber pairs, and complete system purchase. These options, when coupled with varied predictions for capacity prices, the desire to establish a global footprint and the need to develop long term planning of capital expenditures, have created new economic models for the purchase of bandwidth capacity. While this presentation focuses primarily on trends, activities and examples within the wholesale portion of the undersea market, the principles are evident in the retail segment, and terrestrial market as well.
Mool C. Singhi
Director
Network Planning and Forecasting
Global Crossing


CARRIERS PERSPECTIVES

Capacity Glut: A big misconception
  • Glut is a significant excess of supply over demand
    • Supply should always be more than demand to avoid shortage or stock
      outage. Example of power situation in Calif.
    • Level of inventory is function of lead time, inventory holding cost,
  • Demand profile and cost of shortage
    • Is Transoceanic capacity at an optimum level?
    • Capacity glut is being misdefined by some.
    • Capacity is what is lighted and ready to carry data and not the potential
  • Design capacity.
    • Cost of lighting up the capacity is ten times more than putting it in
    • Compare lighted available capacity against current/projected demand and
  • Show it is in short supply rather than a glut
    • Compare lighted capacity against potential design capacity
    • Show economic level of capacity in trans-oceanic sector
    • Conclusion: capacity shortage in some sectors rather than a glut.
Additional invited Representatives
from Broadwing, WorldCom, Genuity


CARRIERS PERSPECTIVES
Fiber Bandwidth Glut: Fact or Fiction? (Day Two)
April 19, 2001- Hilton Boston Logan Airport, Boston
Rod Kuckro
Managing Editor, Bandwidth Market Report The
McGraw-Hill Companies

Elena Curtis
VP IP Routed
Band-X

Brent Wilkins
President
Chapel Hill Broadband

Invited speakers
from Enron, Arbinet-thexchange,
RateXchange, LighTrade, etc.


BANDWIDTH EXCHANGES MARKETS

Moderator: Rod Kuckro, Managing Editor, Bandwidth Market Report
The McGraw-Hill Companies
  • As bandwidth becomes more of a commodity, how does this change the way carriers deploy and market their services? What are the opportunities? Where are the risks?
  • This session will cover the latest developments in the emerging markets for bandwidth trading. Speakers will talk about the key applications and opportunities for bandwidth trading. Attendees will gain valuable insights into overcoming the interconnectivity and provisioning challenges and learn the techniques for developing a management and physical infrastructure to trade bandwidth.

Discussion Panel on Bandwidth Exchanges Markets

  • Elena Curtis, VP IP Routed , Band-X
  • Brent Wilkins , President , Chapel Hill Broadband
  • Russell Matulich, Senior Vice President, Ratexchange
  • Hunter Newby, Executive Vice President, TelX Communications Corp
Steven Blumenthal
Sr. Vice President of Engineering
Genuity Inc.


INTERNET BACKBONE PROVIDERS VIEW

Cathy Mason
Sr. VP of Operations
Universal Access Inc.

Invited
Representatives from Cignal Global Communications, and Angstrom Networks.


BANDWIDTH WHOLESALERS, INTERMEDIARIES AND ICPS POINT OF VIEW

  • Where are the bottlenecks for bandwidth?
  • How to provision bandwidth efficiently
  • Network integration and management
  • Capacity resale
  • Internet and data connectivity
  • Bandwidth on demand

The Importance of Network Interconnection

  • Summary: Just as railroads were the lifeblood of the 19th century economy, communications is the key in the 21st century. In order for the railroads to fully and effectively deliver people, goods and services across the country the competing lines developed standards, policies, and procedures for interconnection and transferring between lines. A similar spirit of coopetition is needed today to enable the various local and long haul telecommunications companies to efficiently link their backbones and deliver the electronic lifeblood to homes and businesses around the world.

  • In this address, we will discuss historical precedents the railroad industry faced and the parallels that can be drawn to today's communications environment. We will also discuss the unique roll Universal Access plays in using information and project management skills to stitch together disparate networks and create an information highway linking points around the world.
Todd Ruelle
President and CEO
Sonic Telecom Inc.


BANDWIDTH WHOLESALERS, INTERMEDIARIES AND ICPS POINT OF VIEW

Fiber Bandwidth Glut: Fact or Fiction? Do customers care?
  • ROI implications for infrastructure builders vs. marketers
  • The high-end applications that customers care about
  • Connecting the dots: integrating the end points
  • Future-proof networks: Transition to data networks
  • Bandwidth on demand
Nitish Mandal
Manager, Strategic Markets
Tellium Inc.

Invited
Representatives
from Cisco,
Sycamore Networks,
and others


SOLUTIONS PROVIDERS

  • What are the solutions enabling bandwidth on demand?
  • Technologies for dynamic bandwidth provisioning
  • Internet data centers and bandwidth delivery

Optimizing Network Architecture for Rapid Bandwidth Delivery and Capacity
Expansion

  • Given rapidly falling prices of bandwidth, it is imperative that carriers
    maximize their revenue opportunity per lit fiber. Deploying the correct
    network architecture ensures that bandwidth is deployed just in time, and,
    at the same time maximizing revenue opportunities. With dynamically
    provisionable bandwidth, new opportunities for revenue generation are
    enabled.

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